Monday, May 31, 2010
The Demise but hope survives...
The disastrous effect of January 4th 2010 of Attabad land sliding continued and it continues. Now almost 5 months since it took place and the chain nature kept submerging almost every thing in its way, villages, lands, roads, homes, schools and the Jamat Khanas (worship place of the Shia Imami Ismaili Muslims). Today I was mournful than I had been on any other day. After reaching my room my brother, Sabir Shah informed me about the shocking news of dismantling the Jamat Khana of muhalla Goze.
Everyday I talked to people there and even after hearing the destruction in my village I kept hopes high and encouraged my family, friends, relatives and everyone to pray... … every one said things will get better soon. Everyday I made myself and my brother determined to go back and help in any capacity possible. I had to tell my brother to concentrate on his papers and I had to manage my papers too. Every news regarding dismantling of someone’s house sent shiver through my body and it seemed as if my own hose is being ruined again and again. Yet hopes were high and tears didn’t roll down. Not for our lands, not for the many houses of our villagers, which were our own.
But, today’s news was so piercing that we both could not withstand it. The place of spiritual asylum, the place of guidance, the place of knowledge, unity and peace, the place which makes an individual face the world and hereafter, the place where the Noor (light/guidance) of the Prophet (SAW), Imam(AS) and Allah Almighty is available was being dismantled.
On hearing the news sorrow struck us and tears of pain rolled down our cheeks… we both were silent for long time, and I could see in Sabir’s eyes that he is missing the pious place. His pain could tell the time he has spent there day and night with his friends to study, to serve, to learn spiritually and worldly. I could see the pain which reflected the skill he has acquired from there; the engineering skill of dealing with electrical appliances. And I could say nothing but try to show him the rays of hope.
And, I on the other hand remembered the days, those of my childhood, when the place once made my internal self clean as a pearl. It made me learn to respect and serve others. It made me what I am today, able to face the world.
O Allah the Merciful save us from the disaster… Give us strength to recover from any such crisis… Help us through such times as You have always helped us O Lord… O Allah guide us and keep us on the right path. Ameen.
Friday, May 28, 2010
The memorable days in Lahore.. With Aslam Ghalib... The lupyor
Aslam Khan Ghalib is a guy who does not need an introduction. He struggled hard, he had passion for education which ultimately led him to AKHSS Gilgit. When I joined AKHSS as his junior, I was amazed at his sociable skills and his communication skills. He would catch people anywhere around, on his way to the room or to school and start conversation in English. This built confidence in his juniors to speak, share thoughts and learn.
When at PU Lahore every single person from GB and majority of his colleagues from elsewhere were his friends. This was all because of his skills as a listener, a speaker, a narrator of folk/traditional funny circumstances and, important of all, a helper.
I remember, in our (4 matriculate friends) first tour to Lahore he accompanied us from Islamabad, gave us shelter for the first day before we could reach our respective relatives.
This picture was taken at his room in PU hostel number 18.
Friday, May 21, 2010
Project Disaster ¼ Management- The Attabad Hunza Disaster of January 04, 10
Natural disaster has affected millions in the recent years and as of 1991-2000 data an average of 211 million people were killed or affected by natural disasters . In such emergency scenarios management has became even more challenging and strategic. Various techniques such as Disaster Preparedness Programs and Emergency Response Units have been developed to address such catastrophic and emergency situations effectively to reduce maximum risk.
Photo Credits: PamirTimes
The topic of my project is inspired by Attabad Hunza Massive Land Sliding (¼) of January 04, 2010 which resulted in blockage of KKH and Hunza River. It is 3000 meters long, 137 meters high and 550 meters wide according to geologists of the FOCUS Humanitarian Assistance. In terms of speed ¼ was dual in nature; at the same time both a rapid onset disaster and a slow onset disaster. But, nature-wise it was a chain disaster. ¼ resulted in complete destruction of Attabad village, on the spot death of 13 residents of Attabad, caused 7 injuries and 6 went missing, while 48 houses of the village got completely destroyed. Almost five months down the course and another 5 villages gradually came under the upstream effect of River Hunza, and 90 houses, 2 community centers and commercial areas got submerged. Indirectly almost 25,000 population of Gojal suffered, with no transportation, fertilizer and seed for their cash crop potato, and every day requirements. But that is what catastrophe offers, as put forward by John Sparrow ‘catastrophe is no longer a brief dip on the curve of development but a danger to the process itself’ .
The response mechanism of ¼ is disputed from public point of view, as the options available on hand included handing over the blockage removal project to China. But experts’ judgment of NesPak, WAPDA, NHA, and concerned institutions was development of a spillway. Keeping in view the capacity of Pakistan Army the project was assigned to them and FWO signed the project charter. The initial plan was set to develop a 100 feet deep spillway.
Photo Credits: PamirTimes
According to the technocrat Mr. Mutabiat Shah, whose house is at the verge of submersion in Gulmit, the pressing issue in ¼ was that of Coordination. Coordination was seen crucial at every stage after ¼, and demanded an effective use of available recourses including man power. It seek understanding between the stakeholders including National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Pakistan Army, GB government, Focus Humanitarian Assistance Pakistan, FWO, PRCS, Community organizations i.e. Religious councils, and the local people involved in emergency and the local volunteers.
FOCUS Pakistan, NDMA and FWO developed assessment reports that forecasted the result of the chain disaster and kept government informed with the projections during the chain disaster. The Information Management had saved maximum lives by early evacuation of the Attabad village. Currently it helped local volunteers to dismantle the targeted houses and buildings precisely and timely.
Photo credits: PamirTimes
Finally, early preparedness measure includes Community Involvement in tackling the initial destruction spontaneously. In case of ¼ the involvement of local volunteers and scouts could be seen as the community involvement. In the aftermath, the instructions given for the downstream areas of Hunza River with the method of responding to the early warning indicators, evacuation strategy, and escaping routes are all incorporated in community involvement in disaster preparedness.
Effect of early preparedness on time and scope management of the disaster management ¼
Disaster projects are the only projects which require “a definite start” while the scope, plan and control evolve with the work says Stephen Wearne, a senior research fellow Project Management Group University of Manchester. Similar is the case with ¼, where the time and scope evolved over the period of 5 months along with the emergency response in place and early preparedness enact. The scope of the project is very intensive; it started with the removal of the debris and over the time with the help of emergency response process and disaster preparedness extended to:
• Evacuation of vulnerable population up and down stream
• Logistics management
• IDP settlement
• Assessment and Monitoring
• Medical units
• Education
While the scope got extended, almost every scope got timely addressed because of institutions and community involvement except the spillway formation which was technical in nature and involved direct control of FWO. Initially the target of spillway was 100 feet within 60 days; later on they kept extending the deadline only to end up with 13ft deep spillway, the rest of 350 ft covered by the rise of water level in the artificial lake.
There can be various internal issues regarding delay on this part of the project, the external and natural factors included:
• Structure of the debris: The soil was of sponge nature, which made it difficult for machinery to work.
• Surrounding: The blockage was in a narrow passage between two mountains of the Karakorum. It offered no any alternative but to carry on with the machinery available.
• Harsh Climatic Condition: It was very cold in many parts of Gilgit-Baltistan, and snow fall made it difficult to work as per schedule.
The locality of Gilgit-Baltistan is highly vulnerable to landslide and rock fall according to a risk Assessment Matrix found in the Risk Management Plan of Gilgit-Baltistan issued by NADMA (Figure 2) . But the effective use of project disaster management with emphasis on disaster preparedness has the capacity to turn deadly disaster into manageable project with reduced adverse effects, as in case of ¼. Of all the steps involved, early warning system and informed community is the key to minimize the loss in a disaster. That is why with almost a failed attempt to remove the debris of ¼ there was smooth execution of the other project scopes. Coordination between various stakeholders and proper information management has the ability to define the scope and time as the emergency response progresses.
Photo Credits: PamirTimes
Disaster project management like that of ¼ follow different course of action than regular projects. According to Rick Brenner, their chaotic and complicated nature demands immediate and decisive action, voice of the people and evaluation of solutions based on merits. In ¼ there is doubt on all of the above suggested road map. The decision of signing contract with Frontier Work Organization (FWO) rather than consideration of an international agency involvement is being questioned. People made pledges in the form of peaceful protest, wrote individual letters to the Prime Minister for early and spontaneous action forecasting the damage potential of Hunza River up and down stream and even requested media to bring it to the spotlight but effective work of spillway did not start until February 2, 2010. And media started giving proper coverage only recently when the destruction was done and millions were at risk. We will examine ¼ in two major parts, firstly in terms of the early disaster preparedness and secondly, effect of early preparedness on the time and scope management to analyze the ‘chain’ nature of this disaster.
Here forth deals with the disaster preparedness strategy, after ¼ chain disaster started, that follows the pattern in the handbook of Disaster Preparedness Training Program of International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (Figure 1) .
The initial and detailed works on Hazard, Risk and Vulnerability Assessments was done by David Petley, Wilson Professor, Department of Geography, Durham University, for FOCUS Humanitarian Assistance Pakistan. The disaster was examined from various angels between 26th February to 4th March and intensive report showing the current scenario, probable future outcomes and recommendations for the government especially. This assessment shade light on the probable outcomes, safe zone above normal river level, and destruction potential of flood and vis-à-vis assessment gave recommendations for future safety up and downstream, steps to be taken like that of monitoring, and public awareness.
Early Response Mechanism and Strategy in ¼ was that of Relief and Rescue, where FWO, Focus Humanitarian, Pakistan, Pakistan Red Crescent Society (PRCS) and volunteers of Shia Imami Ismaili Regional and Local Councils (Religious Councils), Boy Scouts started to search the demolished Attabad for causalities. They also provided relief items for the relocated people of Attabad, Sarrat and Salmanabad. Government compensated Rs. 0.5 M for every death and 0.1M for every injury. With in 10 days relief mobilization was done for the disaster hit area with arrangements for medical service and goods too.
The response mechanism of ¼ is disputed from public point of view, as the options available on hand included handing over the blockage removal project to China. But experts’ judgment of NesPak, WAPDA, NHA, and concerned institutions was development of a spillway. Keeping in view the capacity of Pakistan Army the project was assigned to them and FWO signed the project charter. The initial plan was set to develop a 100 feet deep spillway.
Photo Credits: PamirTimes
According to the technocrat Mr. Mutabiat Shah, whose house is at the verge of submersion in Gulmit, the pressing issue in ¼ was that of Coordination. Coordination was seen crucial at every stage after ¼, and demanded an effective use of available recourses including man power. It seek understanding between the stakeholders including National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Pakistan Army, GB government, Focus Humanitarian Assistance Pakistan, FWO, PRCS, Community organizations i.e. Religious councils, and the local people involved in emergency and the local volunteers.FOCUS Pakistan, NDMA and FWO developed assessment reports that forecasted the result of the chain disaster and kept government informed with the projections during the chain disaster. The Information Management had saved maximum lives by early evacuation of the Attabad village. Currently it helped local volunteers to dismantle the targeted houses and buildings precisely and timely.
The assessment focused on the time frame of the likelihood of overflow, damage due to upstream effect, recognized vulnerable areas of Gojal and it helped to define the scope of the project. Furthermore, the launching of logistics including helicopter service and, later on, boat service for transportation of goods and people were result of the of information management of ¼. Currently the assessments of land, trees, and buildings have helped government to plan out their post disaster scenario, where appropriate compensation will be given to people based on the information gathered.
The down stream analysis and information management has helped emergency teams to implement more effective Early Warning System to vulnerable areas from Hunza-Nagar to Gilgit and down to Tarbela dam. Contingency plans are in place for any possible result of the artificial lake. This has triggered timely displacement of thousands of families from Hunza-Nagar to Areas of Khyber Pukhtunkhwa province. The monitoring team, installation of early warning alerts, devices, and communication teams are all part of the early warning system of ¼.
Photo credits: PamirTimes
With all of the above measures taken, Resource Mobilization for the disaster was key to make ¼ not a deadly chain disaster. With a proper identification of the available recourse of man power, the local volunteers, right from the time of evacuation till date have been organized, effective and cooperative. Their involvement in the settlement of Attabad IDPs before ¼ and their extended work to the sufferers of back stream effect made life possible in the strained society of Gojal. Moreover, the use of available machinery (excavators) and mutual decisions by Army, Government, FWO and FOCUS Humanitarian on distribution of funds, relief goods and subsidized goods keep fulfilling the resource mobilization needs.
Finally, early preparedness measure includes Community Involvement in tackling the initial destruction spontaneously. In case of ¼ the involvement of local volunteers and scouts could be seen as the community involvement. In the aftermath, the instructions given for the downstream areas of Hunza River with the method of responding to the early warning indicators, evacuation strategy, and escaping routes are all incorporated in community involvement in disaster preparedness.
Effect of early preparedness on time and scope management of the disaster management ¼
Disaster projects are the only projects which require “a definite start” while the scope, plan and control evolve with the work says Stephen Wearne, a senior research fellow Project Management Group University of Manchester. Similar is the case with ¼, where the time and scope evolved over the period of 5 months along with the emergency response in place and early preparedness enact. The scope of the project is very intensive; it started with the removal of the debris and over the time with the help of emergency response process and disaster preparedness extended to:
• Evacuation of vulnerable population up and down stream
• Logistics management
• IDP settlement
• Assessment and Monitoring
• Medical units
• Education
While the scope got extended, almost every scope got timely addressed because of institutions and community involvement except the spillway formation which was technical in nature and involved direct control of FWO. Initially the target of spillway was 100 feet within 60 days; later on they kept extending the deadline only to end up with 13ft deep spillway, the rest of 350 ft covered by the rise of water level in the artificial lake.
There can be various internal issues regarding delay on this part of the project, the external and natural factors included:
• Structure of the debris: The soil was of sponge nature, which made it difficult for machinery to work.
• Surrounding: The blockage was in a narrow passage between two mountains of the Karakorum. It offered no any alternative but to carry on with the machinery available.
• Harsh Climatic Condition: It was very cold in many parts of Gilgit-Baltistan, and snow fall made it difficult to work as per schedule.
The locality of Gilgit-Baltistan is highly vulnerable to landslide and rock fall according to a risk Assessment Matrix found in the Risk Management Plan of Gilgit-Baltistan issued by NADMA (Figure 2) . But the effective use of project disaster management with emphasis on disaster preparedness has the capacity to turn deadly disaster into manageable project with reduced adverse effects, as in case of ¼. Of all the steps involved, early warning system and informed community is the key to minimize the loss in a disaster. That is why with almost a failed attempt to remove the debris of ¼ there was smooth execution of the other project scopes. Coordination between various stakeholders and proper information management has the ability to define the scope and time as the emergency response progresses.
Thursday, May 13, 2010
His maxim of Sports And Mine of Study
This is our freshman year, the 2nd semester. The month is no doubt March, when the annual atheletic championships of FCCU are held every year. This guy Mr Najeeb Ullah Khan (who as of this date i.e. 2010 calls him SARKAR) played for the soccer team of Gricewold Hall.
I on the other hand was a day scholar, and with my hanging bag I used to take all the burden of Managmment, Economics and Business Communication courses. I am seen with my uniform, which we wore untill it no more remained comulsory in 2008.Najeeb won the 1st price in Parade (March) while leading his hall. He could be seen in the other Image holding his trophhy. This was the only time he participated with zeal and energy.
Cherished Moments
Defining Bahawal in the image at that particular point in time would go like:
He removed his mustaches shortly after this event. And yes in the event he made an impromptu speech.
Event:Environment day
Speech Theme: Drawbacks of Smoking/Cigarette
Timeline: Our 2nd Semester, Spring 2008.
- Energetic
- Rigorous
- Focused
- Visionary
- Thoughtful
- Analytical
He removed his mustaches shortly after this event. And yes in the event he made an impromptu speech.
Event:Environment day
Speech Theme: Drawbacks of Smoking/Cigarette
Timeline: Our 2nd Semester, Spring 2008.
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