Natural disaster has affected millions in the recent years and as of 1991-2000 data an average of 211 million people were killed or affected by natural disasters . In such emergency scenarios management has became even more challenging and strategic. Various techniques such as Disaster Preparedness Programs and Emergency Response Units have been developed to address such catastrophic and emergency situations effectively to reduce maximum risk.
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The topic of my project is inspired by Attabad Hunza Massive Land Sliding (¼) of January 04, 2010 which resulted in blockage of KKH and Hunza River. It is 3000 meters long, 137 meters high and 550 meters wide according to geologists of the FOCUS Humanitarian Assistance. In terms of speed ¼ was dual in nature; at the same time both a rapid onset disaster and a slow onset disaster. But, nature-wise it was a chain disaster. ¼ resulted in complete destruction of Attabad village, on the spot death of 13 residents of Attabad, caused 7 injuries and 6 went missing, while 48 houses of the village got completely destroyed. Almost five months down the course and another 5 villages gradually came under the upstream effect of River Hunza, and 90 houses, 2 community centers and commercial areas got submerged. Indirectly almost 25,000 population of Gojal suffered, with no transportation, fertilizer and seed for their cash crop potato, and every day requirements. But that is what catastrophe offers, as put forward by John Sparrow ‘catastrophe is no longer a brief dip on the curve of development but a danger to the process itself’ .
Disaster project management like that of ¼ follow different course of action than regular projects. According to Rick Brenner, their chaotic and complicated nature demands immediate and decisive action, voice of the people and evaluation of solutions based on merits. In ¼ there is doubt on all of the above suggested road map. The decision of signing contract with Frontier Work Organization (FWO) rather than consideration of an international agency involvement is being questioned. People made pledges in the form of peaceful protest, wrote individual letters to the Prime Minister for early and spontaneous action forecasting the damage potential of Hunza River up and down stream and even requested media to bring it to the spotlight but effective work of spillway did not start until February 2, 2010. And media started giving proper coverage only recently when the destruction was done and millions were at risk. We will examine ¼ in two major parts, firstly in terms of the early disaster preparedness and secondly, effect of early preparedness on the time and scope management to analyze the ‘chain’ nature of this disaster.
Here forth deals with the disaster preparedness strategy, after ¼ chain disaster started, that follows the pattern in the handbook of Disaster Preparedness Training Program of International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (Figure 1) .
The initial and detailed works on Hazard, Risk and Vulnerability Assessments was done by David Petley, Wilson Professor, Department of Geography, Durham University, for FOCUS Humanitarian Assistance Pakistan. The disaster was examined from various angels between 26th February to 4th March and intensive report showing the current scenario, probable future outcomes and recommendations for the government especially. This assessment shade light on the probable outcomes, safe zone above normal river level, and destruction potential of flood and vis-à-vis assessment gave recommendations for future safety up and downstream, steps to be taken like that of monitoring, and public awareness.
Early Response Mechanism and Strategy in ¼ was that of Relief and Rescue, where FWO, Focus Humanitarian, Pakistan, Pakistan Red Crescent Society (PRCS) and volunteers of Shia Imami Ismaili Regional and Local Councils (Religious Councils), Boy Scouts started to search the demolished Attabad for causalities. They also provided relief items for the relocated people of Attabad, Sarrat and Salmanabad. Government compensated Rs. 0.5 M for every death and 0.1M for every injury. With in 10 days relief mobilization was done for the disaster hit area with arrangements for medical service and goods too.
The response mechanism of ¼ is disputed from public point of view, as the options available on hand included handing over the blockage removal project to China. But experts’ judgment of NesPak, WAPDA, NHA, and concerned institutions was development of a spillway. Keeping in view the capacity of Pakistan Army the project was assigned to them and FWO signed the project charter. The initial plan was set to develop a 100 feet deep spillway.
Photo Credits: PamirTimes
According to the technocrat Mr. Mutabiat Shah, whose house is at the verge of submersion in Gulmit, the pressing issue in ¼ was that of Coordination. Coordination was seen crucial at every stage after ¼, and demanded an effective use of available recourses including man power. It seek understanding between the stakeholders including National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Pakistan Army, GB government, Focus Humanitarian Assistance Pakistan, FWO, PRCS, Community organizations i.e. Religious councils, and the local people involved in emergency and the local volunteers.
FOCUS Pakistan, NDMA and FWO developed assessment reports that forecasted the result of the chain disaster and kept government informed with the projections during the chain disaster. The Information Management had saved maximum lives by early evacuation of the Attabad village. Currently it helped local volunteers to dismantle the targeted houses and buildings precisely and timely.
The assessment focused on the time frame of the likelihood of overflow, damage due to upstream effect, recognized vulnerable areas of Gojal and it helped to define the scope of the project. Furthermore, the launching of logistics including helicopter service and, later on, boat service for transportation of goods and people were result of the of information management of ¼. Currently the assessments of land, trees, and buildings have helped government to plan out their post disaster scenario, where appropriate compensation will be given to people based on the information gathered.
The down stream analysis and information management has helped emergency teams to implement more effective Early Warning System to vulnerable areas from Hunza-Nagar to Gilgit and down to Tarbela dam. Contingency plans are in place for any possible result of the artificial lake. This has triggered timely displacement of thousands of families from Hunza-Nagar to Areas of Khyber Pukhtunkhwa province. The monitoring team, installation of early warning alerts, devices, and communication teams are all part of the early warning system of ¼.
Photo credits: PamirTimes
With all of the above measures taken, Resource Mobilization for the disaster was key to make ¼ not a deadly chain disaster. With a proper identification of the available recourse of man power, the local volunteers, right from the time of evacuation till date have been organized, effective and cooperative. Their involvement in the settlement of Attabad IDPs before ¼ and their extended work to the sufferers of back stream effect made life possible in the strained society of Gojal. Moreover, the use of available machinery (excavators) and mutual decisions by Army, Government, FWO and FOCUS Humanitarian on distribution of funds, relief goods and subsidized goods keep fulfilling the resource mobilization needs.
Finally, early preparedness measure includes Community Involvement in tackling the initial destruction spontaneously. In case of ¼ the involvement of local volunteers and scouts could be seen as the community involvement. In the aftermath, the instructions given for the downstream areas of Hunza River with the method of responding to the early warning indicators, evacuation strategy, and escaping routes are all incorporated in community involvement in disaster preparedness.
Effect of early preparedness on time and scope management of the disaster management ¼
Disaster projects are the only projects which require “a definite start” while the scope, plan and control evolve with the work says Stephen Wearne, a senior research fellow Project Management Group University of Manchester. Similar is the case with ¼, where the time and scope evolved over the period of 5 months along with the emergency response in place and early preparedness enact. The scope of the project is very intensive; it started with the removal of the debris and over the time with the help of emergency response process and disaster preparedness extended to:
• Evacuation of vulnerable population up and down stream
• Logistics management
• IDP settlement
• Assessment and Monitoring
• Medical units
• Education
While the scope got extended, almost every scope got timely addressed because of institutions and community involvement except the spillway formation which was technical in nature and involved direct control of FWO. Initially the target of spillway was 100 feet within 60 days; later on they kept extending the deadline only to end up with 13ft deep spillway, the rest of 350 ft covered by the rise of water level in the artificial lake.
There can be various internal issues regarding delay on this part of the project, the external and natural factors included:
• Structure of the debris: The soil was of sponge nature, which made it difficult for machinery to work.
• Surrounding: The blockage was in a narrow passage between two mountains of the Karakorum. It offered no any alternative but to carry on with the machinery available.
• Harsh Climatic Condition: It was very cold in many parts of Gilgit-Baltistan, and snow fall made it difficult to work as per schedule.
The locality of Gilgit-Baltistan is highly vulnerable to landslide and rock fall according to a risk Assessment Matrix found in the Risk Management Plan of Gilgit-Baltistan issued by NADMA (Figure 2) . But the effective use of project disaster management with emphasis on disaster preparedness has the capacity to turn deadly disaster into manageable project with reduced adverse effects, as in case of ¼. Of all the steps involved, early warning system and informed community is the key to minimize the loss in a disaster. That is why with almost a failed attempt to remove the debris of ¼ there was smooth execution of the other project scopes. Coordination between various stakeholders and proper information management has the ability to define the scope and time as the emergency response progresses.
